As the new fiscal year approaches, IBISWorld has investigated areas that are likely to fly and fall in 2021-2022.
The market research firm said this morning that recovery from the pandemic remains the dominant theme among the fastest growing industries, with the rollout of the COVID-19 vaccine expected to allow the resumption of tourism and large gatherings.
In this context, international airlines should be a big beneficiary. IBIS said the revenues of the international airline sector are expected to increase 78.4% in 2021-2022, to reach $ 14.7 billion.
This is still well below the turnover of $ 29.7 billion in 2018-19, but the gradual recovery is accelerating, with overnight stays by international tourists expected to rise to 213.9 million, from 36.5 million l last year.
The company said that over the next five years, the number of inbound tourists to Australia is expected to gradually pick up, although this is likely hampered by continued travel restrictions from countries that have yet to fully immunize their populations.
Elsewhere, the movie theater industry’s revenues are expected to increase 69.6% in 2021-22, to reach $ 1.1 billion as the backlog of blockbuster films kept during the pandemic is expected to emerge.
The battery materials mining industry has been only moderately disrupted by the COVID-19 pandemic and is expected to resume its strong growth rate over the next fiscal year. Revenue is expected to increase 52.7% in 2021-22, to reach $ 2.5 billion.
The demand for battery materials, especially lithium and cobalt, is expected to continue to increase in response to the adoption of electric vehicles.
IBIS said the adoption of electric vehicles is likely to accelerate over the next decades, with sales volume likely to exceed sales of internal combustion engine vehicles by 2050.
The construction of multi-family apartments and townhouses will be among the worst performing industries over the next year, as excess inventories are expected to lead to a decline amid low population growth and low immigration.
The petroleum refining and petroleum fuels manufacturing industry has faced difficult conditions over the past two decades and in 2021-2022 two of the four remaining refineries in Australia are expected to close and lead to lower revenues from the l industry by 15% to $ 6.6 billion.
Finally, the iron ore industry has been performing very well throughout the COVID-19 pandemic, with steel prices rising 22.1% due to strong demand from Chinese steel mills.
However, conditions are likely to normalize in 2021-22, with iron ore prices expected to drop 21.5% to US $ 104.4 per metric tonne. As a result, industry revenues are expected to decline 10.2 percent to $ 115.5 billion.